000
AXNT20 KNHC 301110
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N19W 7N27W 6N35W 6N45W 
4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM 
S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-27W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 32W-42W. 

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDING S OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF 
EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E CUBA 
TO N GULF COAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/ALABAMA BORDER. LOW 
LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 
85W AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 95W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/E 
CUBA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN 
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS 
MAINLY E OF 72W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS 
OVER THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 70W. EMBEDDED BENEATH 
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAK 1018 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST 
NEAR 31N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA 
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO FORT MYERS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS 
ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE US E COAST. UPPER TROUGH IS 
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL 
ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 42W-70W WITH SERIES OF 
WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
23N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N50W TO 16N56W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N 
BETWEEN 42W-59W. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 
31N38W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 
25W AND NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURE. UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICS S OF 20N E 
OF 50W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET STREAM  WITH WINDS ESTIMATED 
TO BE 80 TO 130 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER 
RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS E OF 27W. AT THE SURFACE...A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE 
SURFACE TROUGH.    

$$
WALLACE