000 AXNT20 KNHC 290534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N28W 5N40W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 43W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL CLIP THE N GULF COAST OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC OVER THE SE US AND THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TEXAS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SW GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CUBA E OF 84W BROUGHT IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA JUST W OF JAMAICA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA E OF 76W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. MODERATE/STRONG NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 29N FROM 59W-68W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 28N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR W OF 74W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N55W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N50W TO 12N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 42W-56W. SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N26W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 20N E OF 45W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE