000 AXNT20 KNHC 271129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N19W 6N41W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 10W-27W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING OVER THE GULF FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA EXTENDING TO 26N87W WHERE IT IS NEAR STATIONARY TO 22N94W WHERE IT IS BECOMING A WARM FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS PULLING NW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W GULF WITH A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS AND CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICAN COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CUBA EXTENDING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF SW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDING A RIDGE W OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE INTO THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W WITH DRY STABLE AIR FILTERING FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING INLAND OVER THE E US. HOWEVER...HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 31N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N FROM 35W-70W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N51W TO 22N58W AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N42W TO 18N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM 31N38W TO 19N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 8N19W TO BEYOND 32N27W AND A WEAK JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM 13N41W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 22N16W PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE