000 AXNT20 KNHC 260600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS LATE SEASON LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS A FAINT LOW CLOUD CURVATURE SIGNATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 64W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N25W 4N35W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 24W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W-38W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS WAS EXPECTED THE SFC LOW OVER THE GULF MOVED INLAND YESTERDAY EVENING AND NOW IS LOCATED OVER NE LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CONTINUES NW TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 20N98W 24N100W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND N FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 86W-92W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NE OVER THE SE U.S. AND IS BEEN ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE NOTED OVER THE COLD SECTOR W OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTLINES. NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE FOUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT SE TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N WEST OF 80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS...AND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SEA. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N62W. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N62W DOMINATES THE W ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SE BAHAMAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 26N55W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH IS ALONG 36W FROM 21N-30N. A SURFACE RIDGE ENVELOPS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED ON A 1036 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NWD THROUGH HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. SLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 10N50W. AN UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N40W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 36W-42W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALL THE WAY N TO BEYOND 32N27W. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. UPPER NWLY FLOW AND DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NW AFRICA. $$ GR