000 AXNT20 KNHC 250549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS RELATED TO THE WAVE ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 140 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NW TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO NE MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IN ENHANCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ALSO JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A CUT-OFF LOW OVER MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N56W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUNDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 40W-45W. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-45W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 31N37W 24N44W 16N55W FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL TROUGH. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED ON A 1038 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. $$ GR