000
AXNT20 KNHC 241135
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS WEAK WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N25W 4N40W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 
NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-41W. 

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 24/0900 UTC...BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE W 
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS S 
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N81W BECOMING A STATIONARY 
FRONT TO 23N93W THEN PULLING N AS A WARM FRONT TO A NEWLY 
DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE WARM 
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY BEING DRAWN 
ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHICH IS UNDER BROKEN 
HIGH CLOUDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF...W ATLC...AND 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES 
TO COVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED JUST S OF THE 
GREAT LAKES. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS FROM VENEZUELA N ALONG 70W TO OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N TO THE COAST 
OF HONDURAS W OF 84W AND THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND OVER THE S 
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 75W-79W. 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT THROUGH THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF 
THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 56W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 40W-56W WITH STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 
17N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
THROUGH 32N44W TO 23N50W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 32W TO BEYOND 32N PROVIDING UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N40W TO BEYOND 32N37W. A WEAKENING 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH 
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING S OVER THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH 
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. 
 
$$
WALLACE