000
AXNT20 KNHC 230521
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ANY 
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE E 
PACIFIC REGION. ANY ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N27W 3N50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 
5N13W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA. 

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE E US INTO THE W 
ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD 
FRONT BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS PUSH ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE 
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 24N91W INTO MEXICO N 
OF VERACRUZ NEAR 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF 
NEAR 29N83W TO 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W TO OVER MEXICO. 
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF THE 
FRONT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF EXTENDING 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER N 
TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 
22N85W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N W 
OF 85W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN 
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 14N E OF 
72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL 
TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER CUBA ALONG THE E COAST OF 
THE US. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC 
AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 40W-65W WITH A SERIES OF 
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 25N42W TO 
19N49W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE TROPICS 
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. A COLD FRONT IS TO THE W 
ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W TO 25N55W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES N OF 28N. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ALONG 35W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 
NM OF LINE FROM 13N48W ALONG 23N41W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 
28N69W AND A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W 
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. 
 
$$
WALLACE