000 AXNT20 KNHC 192349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W IN SMALL SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA ALONG 75W/76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS WAVE IS HAVING ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS TO 18N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 10N13W IN COASTAL GUINEA TO 5N30W TO 6N43W TO 5N55W IN NORTHERN SURINAME...AND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 26N102W. CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO TO 95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER AS BROAD WESTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 19N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N IN TEXAS BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AWAY FROM THE MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 28N...MORE OR LESS THE BOUNDARY OF THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS TO 18N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN COASTAL NICARAGUA AND COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W IN THE WATER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/ POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA ALONG 75W/76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS WAVE IS HAVING ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS TO 18N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N72W TO 30N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N71W AND 30N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22N67W BEYOND 32N62W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N29W TO 28N33W TO 22N43W TO 17N54W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N41W TO 23N50W AND 20N56W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N56W TO 17N62W AND 21N73W NEAR GREAT INAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W....AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MOROCCO INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N27W AND 18N44W. $$ MT