000 AXNT20 KNHC 191738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 75W-80W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N30W 6N44W 5N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 13W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W FROM 3N-10N GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N85W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W...HOWEVER...HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DO TO ON-SHORE FLOW. THE NRN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT... PERSISTS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INCLUDE NRN HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N57W 19N65W 21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W 31N70W 30N80W. OVERCAST SKIES ARE N OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 29N43W 21N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N15W 26N20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 50W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA INHIBITING TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 11N50W 13N30W 20N10W. $$ FORMOSA