000 AXNT20 KNHC 190558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM 68W-75W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO 21N BETWEEN 84W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N30W 4N41W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W FROM 4N-10N GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS PRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 1N33W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 9N23W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER N LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO NW MEXICO THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXITING THE GULF ON TUE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH ARE GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-28N W OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N ANCHORED OVER SE ALABAMA BY A 1025 MB HIGH. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING A MEAN RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A WEAK 1006 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/W PANAMA GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 11N FROM 75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W WITH DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE MID/UPPER AIR OVER THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 55W. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 23N46W TO 19N53W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N44W SW TO 23N55W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 62W-73W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 35W TO OVER W AFRICA CENTERED NEAR 32N29W AND PRODUCING A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED 70 TO 100 KT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. COMPLEX SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE TWO SURFACE LOWS N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N16W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM FROM THE COLD FRONT TO 30W. A TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 5N61W 7N41W TO 11N58W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. $$ WALLACE