000 AXNT20 KNHC 181742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS STILL EVIDENT S OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WEAK WAVE...REMNANT TROUGHING FROM AN OLD FRONT AND OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N20W 6N50W 7N60W. THE ITCZ IS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AIDED BY AN UPPER JET N OF THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-40W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-57W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COAST...HOWEVER...HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 85W. EXPECT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N47W 28N50W 22N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 47W-49W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 31N19W 28N20W 22N26W 21N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 50W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA INHIBITING TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 13N50W 13N30W 20N18W 30N10W. $$ FORMOSA