000 AXNT20 KNHC 161203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 15N TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE FALLING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. ...THE ITCZ... IT STARTS AT 10N11W IN SIERRA LEONE...AND IT GOES ALONG 6N23W 7N40W 8N50W...CROSSING THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN GUYANA INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 1W AND 4W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 17W...AN ISOLATED CELL OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 4N21W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 44W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE EVEN ENCOMPASSES TEXAS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS PUSHED ITSELF THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. THE AIR APPEARS TO BE COMPARATIVELY THE DRIEST NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 66W AND 85W. A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM MIAMI FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND CURVING SOUTHWARD SHARPLY INTO MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY HAVE BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW REACH AT LEAST 18N NEAR JAMAICA WEST OF 70W...ON TOP OF THE DRY AIR. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN INVADED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A TROUGH HAS FILTERED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALTERNATELY FORMING AND DISSIPATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N63W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 15N TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE FALLING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LATEST DEEP LAYER TROUGH PRETTY MUCH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COMPLETELY. PART OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS LAGGING BEHIND AS IT PASSES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS STEERING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO MIAMI FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN CURVING SHARPLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N67W 26N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS WHAT REMAINS OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N70W FROM SIX HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 24N57W BEYOND 31N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE FROM 24N57W AND BEYOND. A CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N23W 26N30W 24N43W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N23W 24N43W COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 4OW. $$ MT