000
AXNT20 KNHC 151755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING 
WEST 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
NEAR 10N47W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
43W-51W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N 
REACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW 
LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
LESSER ANTILLES FROM GRENADA TO HISPANIOLA.   

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N24W 9N47W 9N60W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-35W...AND FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 56W-60W.  

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA 
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N83W 27N90W 25N96W 23N98W 30N108W. THE 
FRONT HAS A VERY THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE FRONT. 20-30 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N 
OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER S...ON-SHORE FLOW W OF 95W FROM TAMPICO 
MEXICO TO VERACRUZ MEXICO IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES 
WITH DRIZZLE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT HAS 10 
KT NELY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT 
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND BE RELATIVELY DRY 
...IN 24 HOURS.     
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-62W.  FURTHER W...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W...AND ALONG THE COAST 
OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 
13N83W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N BETWEEN 
76W-90W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT 
ALL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 24N43W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE 
TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-80W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 
THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-25N 
BETWEEN 57W-66W. ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 10N AND E OF 45W. 

$$
FORMOSA