000 AXNT20 KNHC 150613 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 18N AND PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. THIS WAVE IS EASY TO SPOT BECAUSE OF ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N AT PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N10W IN LIBERIA TO 6N30W TO 9N42W 10N48W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N5W 5N23W 8N36W 9N44W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AT THIS MOMENT... SET TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 18N AND PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. THIS WAVE IS EASY TO SPOT BECAUSE OF ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N AT PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS INVADED THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR...COLLIDING WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FROM CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SUCCESSION OF ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFTER ANOTHER ONE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH ONE BROAD TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER BERMUDA TO 23N69W...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH FEATURE...AS THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH 32N35 26N43W 22N50W 24N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N30W 27N39W 23N49W 22N60W 25N72W. THE WHOLE AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND BLOW-OFF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BERMUDA TO 23N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 14N37W 20N35W 28N28W BEYOND 32N24W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 45W. THE MOROCCO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED MORE TO THE EAST AND NOW COVERS ALGERIA...PARTS OF MOROCCO...AND MAURITANIA. $$ MT