000 AXNT20 KNHC 130607 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A WEAK NARROW QUICKLY-MOVING MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. NO LINE OR DEFINITE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN VENEZUELA AND MOVED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO...THESE MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE AT ALL. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 11N15W AT THE GUINEA COAST TO 10N20W 10N40W 8N48W 5N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 13W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 41W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA. A WEAK AND POSSIBLE CYCLONIC SWIRL EXISTS NEAR 231N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO...THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N86W JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N85W...19N86W...AND 16N88W NEARLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. A 73W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY NEAR IT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N EAST OF 66W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO 18N67W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS...PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE 32N40W 18N67W SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 30N AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 25N50W TO 20N60W AND 18N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N62W 24N53W 25N40W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N37W 27N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE 32N40W 18N67W TROUGH BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W COMPLETELY. $$ MT