000 AXNT20 KNHC 091101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOO FAST FOR A TROPICAL WAVE AND IS MORE OF A LEADING EDGE OF A DENSE AREA OF AFRICA DUST. THIS WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER E/W EDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 35W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N21W 7N42W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10W-26W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC NOW COVERING THE AREA E OF 88W. A JET STREAM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLC. RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER S ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI IS DEPICTED AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N97W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N95W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MUCH THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W TO INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY THERE. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N74W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 66W-70W WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT TO 27N W OF 72W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N76W TO BEYOND 32N60W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N52W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 23N61W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 52W-60W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N E OF 40W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W ALONG 25N34W 20N44W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N49W TO 13N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW. A CLASSIC E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 46W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 6W/7W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN AREA OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF A LINE FROM 10N47W 24N37W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE