000 AXNT20 KNHC 080542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N21W 6N40W 4N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 26W-42W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 6N11W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E US AND THE GULF IS PUSHING E OVER THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 93W. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 100 KT EXTENDING ACROSS E TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OVER THE GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E US EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO 22N88W THEN NW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE COAST BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E EXITING THE E GULF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE W PORTION BEGINS TO WASH OUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MODERATE/ STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 10N77W AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 72W TO INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM 63W-68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A LEADING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32W55W SW TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 26N65W AND A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 33N68W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NORTHWARD. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N72W TO NEAR 28N60W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N48W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N FROM 52W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION AND A 1009 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N31W AND A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 30N26W 23N30W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 13N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH N OF 27N FROM 22W-26W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 51W FROM 10N-19N WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO E PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 40W-48W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ WALLACE