000 AXNT20 KNHC 070550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N25W 4N38W 5N40W 4N53W. 7N45W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 18W-37W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH S OVER THE GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA WELL N OF TAMPA NEAR 30N83W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS N OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S BUT THE W PORTION WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF BY WED NIGHT/THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA TO NE HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 79W-86W AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL TO OVER E PUERTO RICO. SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 63W-73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 62W WITH A LEADING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32W56W SW TO 25N70W THEN S OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND BOUNDARY...COLD FRONT IS OFF THE E US COAST EXTENDING THROUGH 32N79W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 31N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N73W TO NEAR 28N64W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 56W-70W. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 32N36W AND THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W SW TO 24N31W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N24W ALONG 20N33W TO 15N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N30W NW TO BEYOND 32N33W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 125 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 19N. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N55W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 43W-52W. $$ WALLACE