000 AXNT20 KNHC 061100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WAVE MAY HAVE FRACTURED. A 1009 MB LOW IS N/NE OF THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N43W...AND IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO MORE OF A BAROCLINIC TYPE ZONE FURTHER N. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DETACHED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING WWD AT A LOWER LATITUDE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO NWLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA. THE UW-CIMSS MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE FRACTURE...AND THE SRN AREA OF MOISTURE WELL. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 14N...MAINLY DUE TO FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION. THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY...AND WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE MAP SOON. THE UPPER LOW THE WAVE WAS GETTING SUPPORT FROM HAS STALLED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHERMORE...IT APPEARS AS IF MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING/WAVE ENERGY HAS SPLIT WHICH IS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS WELL SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT THE FEATURE BEING ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 9N43W 8N59W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY S OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-33W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED N OF 25N E OF 93W WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF PENSACOLA THAT HAS MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND IT...EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT GETS TAKEN OVER BY A NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE N GULF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS AND SEAS LATER TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER NW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS TO THE ERN TIP OF CUBA...THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE ATLC. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER NE HONDURAS AND THE WATERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 79W-87W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED. SHIP AND BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NELY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NLY FLOW AND DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES IS KEEPING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY TRANQUIL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST IN THE NW PORTION THROUGH WED WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N58W...THEN CONTINUES TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A ROUGHLY 100 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SFC OBS DEPICT NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT WITHIN 180NM BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR CLEAR SKIES JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. WHILE NOEL IS MOSTLY A THING OF THE PAST...SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES TO REGISTER AT THE BUOYS IN THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS MIXING WITH MODERATE ELY SWELLS FROM A RECENT PROLONGED FETCH OF STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WED...ALLOWING INCREASING N WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES TO DEVELOP. AN OCCLUDED 1000 MB SFC LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA NEAR 32N37W...OR ABOUT 585NM SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY S OR SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 32W-39W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N27W AND CONTINUES SW TO 26N28W...THEN W AS A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY TO 27N48W. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MERGING WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 28N25W 20N35W...AND THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15.5N43W AS DESCRIBED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 90NM OF THE TROUGH. A SEPARATE SFC TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A PIECE OF AN OLD FRONT...IS GENERATING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 60NM OF 22N52W. MODEST SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E OF 25W. $$ WILLIS