000 AXNT20 KNHC 051809 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N/14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW... TO THE EAST OF THE 17N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N61W 16N60W 11N59W. THE 17N60W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND ITS RELATED FLOW DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN HERE...NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AREAS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE 17N60W CENTER. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N14W 7N30W 9N43W 9N61W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 62W...AND THE WESTERN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE LAST COLD FRONT ALREADY HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N61W TO 23N70W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO 17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N60W 27N64W 26N67W 24N70W 20N75W IN EASTERN CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 20N74W 13N79W 11N83W...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W... ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO 23N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVEN PASSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. A BROAD EAST-TO-WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 35W INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. A RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N57W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE 17N60W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND NORTH OF 13N/14N EAST OF THE RIDGE ALOFT 32N53W 25N57W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 34N35W. A 996 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 34N34W. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE COMING OUT OF THIS LOW CENTER. THOSE FRONTS ARE LINED UP ONE AFTER THE OTHER ONE...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 55W. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS DISSIPATING ALONG 30N21W 22N30W 21N40W 24N50W 30N55W. THE SECOND FRONT IS COLD THROUGH 30N27W 27N30W 26N40W BEYOND 30N47W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE FRONTS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A JET STREAM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N30W AND A SEPARATE BRANCH ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 17N35W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 67W...FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 22N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N76W TO 17N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. $$ MT