000 AXNT20 KNHC 050533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 41W FROM 5N TO 18N...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER WITH NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 23N59W TO 15N58W TO 6N55W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N58W. LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISPLACED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ACTIVITY IS STRONGEST WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 17N52W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N30W 8N45W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC W OF 65W... A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THIS PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG 80W N OF ABOUT 20N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. GFS 300 MB WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 80 KNOTS N OF ABOUT 29N AND LESSEN TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS OR SO ALONG 22N. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE EAST CARIBBEAN... ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N58W...MOVING SLOWLY NW. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE AREA S OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS W OF ABOUT 35W INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA. A RIDGE ALOFT HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N55W TO NEAR 25N58W. VERY LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E AND E CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 32W N OF 17N. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED FROM 18N TO WELL BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A JET ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N45W TO 24N30W AND A SEPARATE BRANCH ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 18N35W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 25N. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N21W TO 24N26.5W TO 23N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N36W TO BEYOND 32N45W. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN... BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 65W WITH THE AXIS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY THROUGH CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. DIFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA DURING THE DAY. $$ CAB