000
AXNT20 KNHC 042339
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 1008 
MB LOW IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12.5N.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.  CONVECTION 
IS ISOLATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS SHEARED BY MID TO 
UPPER WESTERLIES.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS HIGHLY TITLED ALONG 22N57W 14N56W 7N53W MOVING 
W 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA 
TO THE E OF THE LOW FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 51W-54W.  THIS 
LOW-LEVEL FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE SURROUNDING BUOY DATA 
WITH PRESSURES LOWEST...NEAR 1008 MB...ALONG THE ANALYZED AXIS 
AND A ENE TO SE WIND SHIFT.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N20W 5N30W 7N40W 9N60W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 9W-14W... 
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 46W-48W.     

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 
30N93W IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF 
LIMITING CONVECTIVE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NE 
GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER.   
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE NE 
COAST OF HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 16N83W.  A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND 
OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W MOVING WSW AT 8 KT.  CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTS OVER E CUBA FROM 
19N-21N BETWEEN 74W-78W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  FAIR WEATHER 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  FURTHER E... AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N58W.  EXPECT 
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 75W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.       

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA ALONG 32N62W 
21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 27N24W 24N30W 
23N40W 25N50W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 65W.  A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E 
CUBA TO BEYOND 32N55W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 
10W-50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N45W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE 
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 9N23W.

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FORMOSA