000 AXNT20 KNHC 041122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 36W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG TILTED FROM 10N52W TO 20N56W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 51W-58W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N19W 10N36W 8N46W 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 31W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 22W-34W AND FROM 7N12N BETWEEN 45W-51W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH A JET STREAM OVER THE SE US AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 TO 90 KT N OF 27N E OF 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WHICH IS LIMITING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO JUST N OF THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W USHERING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W SW TO CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO 25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N FROM 70W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS HAITI AND E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N55W THROUGH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N58W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM ROUGHLY 35W-60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W EXTENDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N24W TO 25N33W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICS EXTENDING ALONG 9N/10N TO 50W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE