000 AXNT20 KNHC 040445 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 34W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG TILTED FROM 9N51W TO 19N54W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-54W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N30W 10N37W 9N49W 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 28W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 27W-50W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH A JET STREAM INLAND OVER THE SE US. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WHICH IS LIMITING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE S GULF BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MON. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO JUST N OF THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT HAD PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NOW COVERS MOST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N84W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W USHERING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US CONTINUES TO PUSH E ACROSS THE W ATLC LEAVING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE OVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA SW TO CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N FROM 71W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N55W THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 35W-60W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W EXTENDING A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W TO 26N32W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICS EXTENDING ALONG 9N/10N TO 47W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE