000 AXNT20 KNHC 031752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 28W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 9N48W TO 19N50W...BASED ON SATELLITE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 43W AND THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N23W 11N33W 9N40W 11N50W 9N61W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N EAST OF 16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-28W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE GULF UNDER A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N81W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND THE SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WSW TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR HAVE PUSHED S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE. STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N74W TO 12N84W...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME CLUSTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMALLY HURRICANE NOEL...ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 31N68W AND STRETCHING SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N69W OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN...WHEREAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE LATER TODAY AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN S TO SW WINDS 20-30 KT NORTH OF 25N. FARTHER EAST... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A SFC LOW NW OF THE AZORES TO NEAR 31N27W THEN WSW TO 27N37W. MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND TO 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. $$ WADDINGTON