000 AXNT20 KNHC 021752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE NOEL IS PULLING NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA AND IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT 02/1500 UTC NOEL WAS CENTERED NEAR 29.2N 73.8W...OR ABOUT 500 NM W-SW OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 370 NM S-SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NOEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AND BECOME LESS TROPICAL-LOOKING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED MOVE N-NE AT A FASTER SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE FACT THAT NOEL IS EXPECTED TO SOON BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND NOT MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE UNITED STATES...THE MARINE THREAT OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL NOT END. STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OFFSHORE THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST THROUGH SAT...AND FOR THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUN. HOWEVER...THE LEFTOVER LARGE...DANGEROUS SWELLS AND SURF GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. THE WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FOR OFFSHORE MARINERS...REFER TO THE NCEP HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1. FINALLY...REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FOR INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 27W WAS ADJUSTED TO 30W/31N FROM 5N-14N..ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE RELOCATION WAS JUSTIFIED BY THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DISORGANIZED...SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 19N47W 13N44W 5N43W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE TILT SHOWN ON THE MAP WAS DRAWN TO MATCH THE TROUGH AXIS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DISPLACED WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-14N...WITH PERSISTENT W/SW SHEAR OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 9N27W 7N41W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-28W...AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-24W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN STORY OVER THE GULF IS THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE SFC WINDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND HURRICANE NOEL. THIS FLOW IS USHERING IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE BASIN...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY AIR BEING ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE COAST OF SW FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W...TO THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 24N87W...AND THEN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. THE UW-CIMSS MIMIC TPW PRODUCT...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN TRACKING TROPICAL WAVES THIS YEAR...HAS ALSO BEEN HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE BOUNDARY OF THIS DRIER AIR MASS PUSHING S THROUGH THE GULF. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS ALSO NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN TODAYS WV IMAGERY...WITH THE FLOW MORE OR LESS ZONAL. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NE FLOW WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EXCEPT LIGHTER OVER THE NW PORTION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR SE MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE ALREADY FLOODED PARTS OF TABASCO AND SURROUNDING MEXICAN AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL IS KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. LIGHTNING DATA IS DEPICTING NUMEROUS TSTMS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N BETWEEN 85W-88W...WITH ONSHORE NLY FLOW. THE TROUGHING IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF ERN CUBA...JAMAICA..AND HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 71W-83W. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW S OF JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIFTING IT S/SW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING S OF NOEL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN THIS REGION SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW MAPS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED...MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE W ATLC...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. COLD FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NLY WINDS AND LARGE N/NE SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N31W 24N54W...WHICH IS GETTING SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 21N ALONG 46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 35W. TRADES ARE MOSTLY MODERATE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AREA WITH MODERATE SFC RIDGING IN PLACE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CURRENTLY JUST N OF THE AZORES WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N34W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ WILLIS