000 AXNT20 KNHC 020550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 76.1W AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING NNE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981W MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEED 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE CARIBBEAN JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 28N79W ACROSS CUBA TO THE E OF NOEL NEAR 26N74W. DRY UPPER AIR IS TO THE W OF NOEL LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION W OF 78W. NOEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG AND ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATE TO THE NE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 0000 UTC ALONG 26W/27W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 0000 UTC ALONG 41W/42W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N17W 7N23W 5N35W 7N43W 4N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N W OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 17W-24W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE US AND WILL ENTER THE GULF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAPIDLY E AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO THE S. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS PRODUCED THOSE WINDS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX NOW THAT NOEL IS STARTING TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY NE BUT SHALL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N W OF 91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE W CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY ACTIVATE TONIGHT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE NOEL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W SW TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 71W-88W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IN THE W ATLC... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM CUBA TO 32N W OF NOEL TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT E OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW ATLC N OF THE CAROLINAS THEN SW OVER THE SE US. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N FROM 35W-60W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 25N46W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N57W THEN NW TO N OF NOEL NEAR 33N75W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A WEAK JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 TO 70 KT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OF NOEL IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 30W AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE E ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N54W COVERING THE AREA S OF 18N FROM 48W-60W WITH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 8N/9N TO 45W. $$ WALLACE