000 AXNT20 KNHC 311805 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 78.8W AT 31/1800 UTC ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO SANTA MARIA OR ABOUT 175 NM SSW OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THU BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND CURVING E FRI. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT BEGINS ITS MOVE MORE TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS JUST TO THE W OF THE CENTER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS N OF CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 72W-78W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N25W 11N45W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 15W-25W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA NEAR 28N83W AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER SW TO NEAR 25N95W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR MARYLAND COMBINED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EFFECTS T.S. NOEL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CIRCULATING AROUND THE STORM...N OF 17N W OF JAMAICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NOEL FROM CENTRAL CUBA S TO NEAR THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N48W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. THE FRONT SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 31N W OF 57W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE NOEL. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER MARYLAND IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF NOEL W OF 65W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N51W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 45W-53W. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 9N/10N TO 40W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 26N45W. $$ DGS