000 AXNT20 KNHC 310549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR 21.7N 78.2W AT 31/0600 UTC ABOUT 26 NM NW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OR ABOUT 200 NM SSW OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL HAS REMAINED OVER CUBA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WEAKENED THE SYSTEM WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING NOEL TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE W ATLC. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGES INTO THE W ATLC LATER TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR ANY STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT MOVES MORE TO THE NE. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IS JUST TO THE W OF THE CENTER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 20N77W NE ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N72W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN E OF NOEL WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 66W-77W. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER TONIGHT MORE FOR E CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ILL-DEFINED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL BUT SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N22W 7N39W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-24W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 30W-37W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 31/0300 UTC A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA NEAR 28N83W TO 28N85W BASED ON DEW POINT DIFFERENCE. THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG 25N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT W OF 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF BUT BELOW GALE FORCE. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL ARE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 26NE OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EFFECTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO TROPICAL STORM NOEL...SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL FROM S OF E CUBA NEAR 19N78W W OF JAMAICA ALONG 16N79W TO 12N83W. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 77W-84W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE N ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N53W TO 30N65W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BASED ON DEW POINT DIFFERENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 30N FROM 55W-77W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE SYSTEM. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF NOEL W OF 70W WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N52W COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 44W-54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE N EXTENDING FROM 31N47W SW TO 24N57W. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FORM OFF AFRICA ALONG 8W/9W TO 45W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-15N E OF 43W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 20N E OF 40W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE AREA RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE