000 AXNT20 KNHC 301435 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 76.8W AT 30/1200 UTC VERY NEAR THE TOWN OF GIBARA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA OR ABOUT 275 MILES S OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN E OF NOEL THEN TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 25N72W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA NEAR 11N72W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE STORM FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 65W-72W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE S BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF T.S. NOEL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N FROM 60W-66W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N18W 9N29W 5N41W 4N53W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-45W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 53W-62W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 30/0900 UTC A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W ALONG 27N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W BASED ON DEW POINT DIFFERENCE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 175 NM OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N AND W OF THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OVER THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA AREA AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. THE SE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS W OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS NOW N OF CUBA THE EFFECTS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA. THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS E CUBA IS BEGINNING TO SEE THE EFFECTS AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 19N76W OVER JAMAICA ALONG 16N78W TO 11N82W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM N COSTA RICA TO OVER BELIZE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NE US AND E CANADA INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N61W S OF BERMUDA TO 30N68W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA BASED ON DE POINT DIFFERENCE. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 31N FROM 60W-77W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY SLOT IS JUST TO THE W OF NOEL FROM OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA LIMITING CONVECTION ON THAT SIDE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER CAROLINAS/ VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE US COAST AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 26N49W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N51W TO NEAR 13N53W. A SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-32N BETWEEN 51W-60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY STABLE AIR THROUGH 32N54W SW TO 26N63W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 20N40W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N30W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 14N49W TO BEYOND 23N44W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 25W AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 18N E OF 45W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE