000 AXNT20 KNHC 300001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI EARLIER TODAY...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. AT 30/0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180 NM..335 KM...SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 295 NM...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HISPANIOLA. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 26 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF NOEL ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EASTERN CUBA...PARTICULARLY THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...850 MB VORTICITY AND THE TPW PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N61W AFFECTING MARTINIQUE...SAINT LUCIA AND BARBADOS WITH SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS ALSO ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER SURINAME...GUYANA AND NE VENEZUELA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS EVENING CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 8N25W 4N40W 4N50W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER GUYANA AND SURINAME. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N81W 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES THAT COVERS THE U.S. GULF STATES AND NE MEXICO. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 93W...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS NELY WINDS AT 20-25 KT. UPPER SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY NE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...NAMELY THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE MOIST ONSHORE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON T.S. NOEL THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NOEL TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE TROUGH. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A FEEDER BAND OF NOEL. IN ADDITION...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME OUTER FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL STORM...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTER TIP OF CUBA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N72W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. A DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN NOEL AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC STATES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD... AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SE FLORIDA BASE ON THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK OF NOEL THAT BRINGS THE STORM CLOSER TO SE FLORIDA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLEXION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N49W 25N55W. DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 40W-50W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS NE OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO 26N42W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. $$ GR