000 AXNT20 KNHC 291202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 72.4W AT 29/1200 UTC NEAR PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER HAS LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W AND FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 67W-72W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE VENZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER TO 16N70W. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR HISPANIOLA AND SE CUBA. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE NOEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NNW AS RAINS WILL INCREASE OVER JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SURGE TYPE APPEARANCE AS THE CURVATURE BROADENS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 51W-55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N25W 5N39W 8N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-34W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-10N E OF 18W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N FROM 89W-93W. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL AND E US IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT. THE SE GULF IS MOSTLY RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WHILE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FAR W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ARE A HIGH CONCERN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AFFECTING SE CUBA AND JAMAICA AS THE STORMS MOVES NNW. ELSEWHERE...A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W 16N83W TO NEAR 10N82W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LOW/MID LEVEL SWIRL IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N81W VERY NEAR THE S END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN COMPLIMENTS OF NOEL BETWEEN 66W-80W KEEPING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH ARE FOR THE MOMENT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N75W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 26N FROM 60W-75W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW N OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE US COAST AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE N THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N50W AND 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N50W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 27N51W TO 24N59W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N50W NE TO BEYOND 32N32W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 16N53W TO 31N41W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W. $$ WALLACE