000 AXNT20 KNHC 281815 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. IT WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 65W-73W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE HAS REACHED 54W IN THE FORM OF A LOW CLOUD SURGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 44W-54W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 3N48W 2N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 25W-35W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 N OF THE WARM FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE NELY AT 20-25 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 92W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ABOUT TO BE UPGRADED TO STORM STATUS DUE TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N80W 20N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. EXPECT THE STORM TO SLOWLY MOVE NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ON RAINFALL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 30N45W 25N50W 25N55W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 25N60W 29N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 39W-42W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 22N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 29N69W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N27W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N29W. $$ FORMOSA