000 AXNT20 KNHC 271710 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STRETCHING N-S ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW TO THE N OF THE WAVE. THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF THE TROPICAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N24W 5N35W 5N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-27W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS OF 15Z...THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 31N80W SOUTHWEST TO 27N82W WHERE IS BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES NEAR 25N86W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 82W-86W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDS FROM 27N95W TO 22N92W AND IS MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT WITH 20-25 KTS NE AND 10-15 KTS SW OF THE TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...WEST OF 87W...IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE S OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO PANAMA WEST OF 79W. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W. THE LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE SW AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS SQUALLS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PRIMARILY PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS...A NARROW BAND OF DRY AIR IS MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ATLANTIC... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR SOUTH ATLANTIC WEST OF 62W FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC IS RESULTING IN STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT DIPPING JUST SOUTH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 30N48W AND 30N61W IS PUSHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER ELONGATED LOW PRES TROUGH LIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE S AND E OF THE TROUGH IS SPREADING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 250 NM OF A LINE THAT STRETCHES NE FROM 15N50W TO 32N36W AND WELL BEYOND THE REGION INTO THE NORTH ATLC. THE E ATLC IS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SWD FROM HIGH PRES N OF THE AZORES AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N29W. $$ WADDINGTON