000 AXNT20 KNHC 262335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. A NARROW NW-SE STRETCHED MOISTURE SURGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 35W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE DRIFTING TO THE N AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW TO THE N OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 45W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA ALONG 78W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N40W 5N48W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 9W-12W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-38W...AND BETWEEN 41W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-41W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO W CUBA ALONG 28N80W 26N81W 23N84W. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 80W-85W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 10 KT NELY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES W OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS NEAR 39N89W PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. A WEDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 86W. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO DRIFT NW AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 82W-85W. FURTHER W...A 1005 MB LOW IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 60W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 79W. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. A SMALL COL IS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS NEAR JAMAICA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 32N80W TO BIMINI NEAR 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 90 NM E OF FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N68W. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 33W-37W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N24W 16N48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N42W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 14N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO 32N30W. $$ FORMOSA