000 AXNT20 KNHC 251021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SHOWS A MID LEVEL FEATURE WITH LITTLE INDICATION ON THE SURFACE AND MOVEMENT IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ALONG 42W/43W S OF 13N MOVING 10-15 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 7N24W 11N39W 7N49W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 13W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 3N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 9W...FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 21W-35W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 34W-43W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND W CUBA E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N81W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HAVANA ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER N MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF AND A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF 27N87W N OVER GEORGIA. DRY STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH E COVERING MOST OF THE GULF WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT WITH CLEAR SKIES W OF 94W FROM TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... VERY SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N W OF 84W. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA E OF HAVANA TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 82W-87W WHILE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA NW ALONG 10N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N FROM 77W-82W AND S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 65W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N78W TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 20N82W. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES SOUTH AMERICA N OF PANAMA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N79W ALONG THE FAR E COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE E OF THE FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W N TO NEAR 32N76W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N FROM 75W TO THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE N OF THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER LOW TO THE E BEGINS TO EXPAND. A SWATH OF DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 24N59W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE LOW OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 55W-63W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N55W 19N58W TO 23N68W AND SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N44W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 27W-58W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 26N40W TO 23N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 26W-50W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11N E OF 35W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 23W TO 34N COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILD OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W. $$ WALLACE