000 AXNT20 KNHC 240530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 26W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N21W 9N33W 5N53W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 19W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 2N-12N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W ALONG 24N87W TO OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE GULF AND A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI THEN N ACROSS E LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE FAR E GULF. DRY STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF CLEARING SKIES W OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N86W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA NW ALONG 15N79W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER HAS WESTERLY FLOW. A CONVERGENCE LINE IS ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH A SMALL 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N79W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO 17N80W. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E OF 70W. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N FROM 55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND COVERING THE AREA WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N62W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N63W ALONG 18N57W TO NEAR 23N65W WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N59W. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 24W-45W WITH A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N33W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 19N39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 28W-38W. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA BORDER JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N22W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N22W. $$ WALLACE