000 AXNT20 KNHC 231745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W DUE TO STRONG UPPER WLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 60W-6W AND IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 20N62W. LIGHTING DATA DEPICTS ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TRINIDAD AND GUADELOUPE REPORTED THIS MORNING 24 HOURS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.14 AND 1.19 INCHES RESPECTIVELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 8N35W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N EAST OF 34W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST ACROSS GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEHIND THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG WINDS. 42002 BUOY IN THE GULF IS REPORTING SEAS UP TO 17 FEET. AS OF 1500 UTC... THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER N ALABAMA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N88W ALONG 25N90W INTO MEXICO NEAR VILLAHERMOSA IN THE STATE OF TABASCO. THIS CITY RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 75 KT. THIS MORNING MINATITLAN REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 KT WHILE VERACRUZ HAS GUSTY WINDS OF 45 KT. A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN STALL AND WEAKEN NEAR THE W COAST OF FLORIDA WED THROUGH THU. A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND NE MEXICO SUPPORTS THIS FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... NE TO E WINDS AROUND THE SE AND SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA WITH DRY STABLE AIR RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NE OF PUERTO RICO WHILE A SECOND ONE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SW ACROSS THE BASIN IS NOW NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH CONNECTS THESE TWO LOWS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 12N67W. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED DOWN THERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A . ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NC GIVING THE W ATLC NE UPPER FLOW W OF 65W AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB NEAR 35N62W DOMINATES MOST OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. A CUT-OFF LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N36W. A SFC LOW DEVELOPED YESTERDAY IN THIS AREA AND IS NOW N OF AREA NEAR 32N34W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 19N40W. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AHEAD THE TROUGH AFFECTING FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 30W-33W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N22W. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE FAR E ATLC. $$ GR