000 AXNT20 KNHC 230007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 51W-60W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N30W 11N58W 10N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 17W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-64W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N93W 26N95W 23N99W MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. 25-35 KT NLY GALE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE ONLY 15-20 KT SLY WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH RUNS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N94W 16N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-92W. A 50 KT STORM EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH N OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 31N84W 28N80W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOE THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 74W. RIDGING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 28N70W 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST NEAR 37N68W. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N36W 20N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. UN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS W OF65W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N38W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 24N17W. $$ FORMOSA