000 AXNT20 KNHC 200001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED BACK A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE APEX OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AND THE NEW MASS OF CONVECTION THAT FORMED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 40W-47W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-42W. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION SOLELY BASED ON FORWARD CONTINUITY. CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 8N46W 6N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 7W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 33W-36W...AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 55W-60W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 27N90W 25N95W 25N99W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N83W 24N90W 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W...AND FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 85W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 90W. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W MOVING W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W...AND A NEW BATCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N63W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N50W 23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 24N AND W OF 60W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 40W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N36W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 20W-55W. $$ FORMOSA