000 AXNT20 KNHC 191106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT AS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 7N12W 3N30W 5N45W 6N50W 7N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N44W 8N41W 10N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED THROUGH MISSOURI INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER ALL AREAS OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N. THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE TEXAS COAST...SLOWING DOWN COMPARATIVELY AS THE PART OF THE FRONT IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI HAS RACED AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PART. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS MOMENT. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS FEATURE COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N94W 31N87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 70W/71W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT ACCOMPANIED BY ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. ONLY THE 1012 MB ISOBAR IS LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE AREA...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO WESTERN CUBA AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A EAST-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N EAST OF VENEZUELA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W...AND IN A THIN LINE FROM 15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA... UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N51W TO 26N53W TO 19N63W JUST ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N33W TO 26N47W TO 23N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W....AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N28W 29N31W 30N35W 30N38W 26N48W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N49W 23N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 19N41W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N27W...AND BEYOND NEAR 32N28W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N29W TO 22N33W TO 17N34W. BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING EAST OF 50W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS INLAND IN ALGERIA/CENTRAL MOROCCO/NORTHERN MAURITANIA. $$ MT