000
AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT AS APPARENT IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS 
WAVE.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE.
 
...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 8N20W 9N31W 9N45W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N44W 10N50W 13N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S.A./MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER ALL AREAS OF MEXICO NORTH OF 21N. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS WEST OF 29N89W 24N93W 20N96W...WITH 
DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WEST OF 29N89W 20N96W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...FROM 24N86W 
BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE 
WATERS FROM 60 NM SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 69W/70W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT ACCOMPANIED BY ANY DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
COMPARATIVELY WEAK. ONLY THE 1012 MB ISOBAR IS LOCATED IN THE 
CENTER OF THE AREA...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO WESTERN 
CUBA AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD AND 
NOT-SHARPLY-DEFINED EAST-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N EAST OF VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N56W 
TO 20N64W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N34W
TO 26N46W TO 24N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 27N42W 23N54W 22N63W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
22N38W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N30W...AND 
BEYOND NEAR 32N28W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N29W TO 22N33W TO 17N34W. 
BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING EAST OF 
50W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS INLAND IN ALGERIA/CENTRAL MOROCCO/NORTHERN MAURITANIA.

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