000 AXNT20 KNHC 182329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAINT INVERTED V-SHAPE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. CONVECTION HAS LESSENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS NOW E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 40W-44W. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOP AND SOUNDING DATA POSSIBLY SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE PASSED BARBADOS A DAY OR TWO AGO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS WAVE ON TODAY'S IMAGERY OR IN THE OTHER AVAILABLE DATA...SO MAINTAINED FORWARD CONTINUITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N20W 9N30W 8N50W 10N60W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 48W-60W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-90W AND IS MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N85W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO NEW JERSEY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 28N AND E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION... SELY SURFACE FLOW AND SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CUBA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 71W-84W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 12N79W 19N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 74W-81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W MOVING W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THEE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 26N45W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 25N55W 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N27W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST IN THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 40W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 7N51W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 10N30W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE THUS UNFAVORABLE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. $$ FORMOSA