000 AXNT20 KNHC 160523 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED BUT IS DISTORTED SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SEE.ITCZ BELOW. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. VERY LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N WITH A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOSING DEFINITION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 9N35W 10N55W 9N63W. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-20N BETWEEN 25W-34W AND FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 34W-45W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N94W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 23N83W ALONG 27N86W TO 28N90W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 22N94W THEN NE TO NEAR 29N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W TO 28N90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 69W-80W. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 69W TO JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N73W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W AND EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W W ALONG 31N55W TO 31N65W WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N68W TO BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N78W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N53W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N FROM 30W-65W. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ACROSS THE E ATLC ALONG 18N34W AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO NEAR 13N57W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES AND A 1019 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N22W. $$ WALLACE