000 AXNT20 KNHC 160005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS N OF THE ITCZ ARE SHEARING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS TO THE E OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 3N-18N BETWEEN 25W-37W. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1005 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO STRONG UPPER NELY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N20W 9N30W 10N50W 9N61W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N92W 27N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 87W-91W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION... ELY SURFACE FLOW AND NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CUBA PRODUCED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 63W-66W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 31N60W 27N70W 24N77W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N30W 25N50W. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E AND CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE MODERATE TRADES PERSIST IN THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 30W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W AFRICA NEAR 8N10W. THIS FLOW IS PREVENTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ FORMOSA