000 AXNT20 KNHC 140513 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NARROW LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 20W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 9N43W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED E OF 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG ENE UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N22W 7N28W 9N41W 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 18W-33W AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 33W-41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 9 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-12N AND N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA E OF 7W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES JUST E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 92W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CLIPS THE FAR SE GULF GIVING PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE E YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OFF THE COAST OF TEAS/MEXICO NEAR 25N96W GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT 1005 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA TO JUST E OF HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N81W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS CUBA AND W OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR BELIZE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 18N60W. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 27N65W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 75W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT AND 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ALONG 26N64W THEN TO BEYOND 32N47W THUS COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 20N37W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N FROM 20W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE