000 AXNT20 KNHC 090442 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N86W MOVING ERRATICALLY. BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SHOWER/CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 57W-59W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N27W 9N47W 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 45W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF W OF 96W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR 24N95W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE E GULF E OF 87W WITH AN INDUCED UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 89W-96W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 92W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N E OF 95W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 87W IS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE 1004 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ADDRESSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N67W W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N60W THROUGH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 19N BETWEEN 61W-70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 70W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N DRAPING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N42W TO 23N52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N48W COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N FROM 35W-60W AND EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N34W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM SURFACE HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N25W S TO NEAR 17N37W COVERING THE AREA E OF THE COLD FRONT. $$ WALLACE