000 AXNT20 KNHC 061825 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14.5N. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO FLARE UP ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE WAVE/LOW FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DESPITE UNFAVORABLE WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 8N43W 13N50W 11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-41W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VIRGINIA TO NE TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NW FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 90W PRODUCING 20 KT ELY WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS. SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N102W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 92W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 84W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 84W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE W OVER THE S GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1007 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW HAS BEEN STEADILY DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NAMELY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 84W-88W...FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 76W-83W...FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-74W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FURTHER DEEPEN AND MOVE W AT 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N62W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W...IN THE GENERAL AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-73W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N40W TO 23N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 40W-55W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-75W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N52W. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N37W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 25W-45W. $$ FORMOSA