000 AXNT20 KNHC 051104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELDS IS SEEN IN A BROAD SENSE ON THE LATEST IR-IMAGERY ALONG 48W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N12W 8N20W 8N30W 9N40W 10N45W 9N51W 8N63W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N99W IN EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N86W BEYOND 31N84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO CREATES A COL POINT SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NON-TROPICAL 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N92W. ONE BURST OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N89.5W. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. RESIDENTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING 24N68W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD SENDING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W IS DUE TO AN ALREADY-EXISTING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N80W. THIS IS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAD SPENT AT LEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 17N TO 21N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OR ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W THAT HAD BEEN COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS NOW FINDS ITSELF WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA NEAR 24N68W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W...TOUCHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO WEST OF THE CENTER. PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE 24N68W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W...AND IN NORTHERN HAITI. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 20N/21N. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N53W IS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF MELISSA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE 15N45W 34N40W RIDGE AND THE 24N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N30W TO 25N38W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 25N38W AND CONTINUING TO 26N44W AND 27N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 15N45W 22N43W 27N43W TO 34N40W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 48W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT PASSES OVER THE TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. $$ MT