000 AXNT20 KNHC 030605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION PROBABLY IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...PROBABLY IS IN THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 9N13W IN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 7N22W TO 9N34W 9N39W 8N43W 8N48W 8N52W 8N56W 8N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N11W 5N23W 5N30W... SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER... INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS/CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LAST 24 TO 30 HOURS NOW IS DISSIPATING FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 24N86W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM 19N TO CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AREA FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 10N57W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EASILY APPARENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BRINGING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION EAST OF 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR 19N45W. A BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM 36N39W TO 31N43W TO A DEVELOPING 32N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N48W TO 29N55W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N55W TO 32N64W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. $$ MT